HP
High Probability Advisors, LLC — 13F Portfolio Analysis & Stock Picks (Q3 2026)
High Probability Advisors, LLCCIK: 0002039415
Diversified strategyMomentum followerSector-focused
Total reported value
$892.2M
Reporting period: 2026-09-30 · Number of holdings: 71
High Probability Advisors, LLC disclosed 71 holdings in its latest 13F filing for the period ending 2026-09-30, with total reported value of $892.2M and a quarterly turnover rate of 12.1%.
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Personality snowflake
- Concentration
- 25.76
- Portfolio Stability
- 12.08
- Momentum
- 100
- Sector conviction
- 84.75
- Diversification
- 100
- Sizing Uniformity
- 80.96
High Probability Advisors, LLC's disclosed holdings carry a Herfindahl concentration index of 0.064 — mathematically equivalent to about 16 equally-sized positions, well below its 71 actual disclosed holdings. That gap points to a strategy built around a small core of high-conviction bets rather than broad diversification.
Position sizes vary widely across the portfolio (a coefficient of variation of 1.90), with a handful of outsized bets alongside many smaller positions.
Recent activity leans toward adding more aggressively to already-large existing positions than to newly initiated ones (a 2.9 percentage-point tilt) — a pattern consistent with a momentum-following approach.
Sector classification currently covers about 1% of this portfolio's disclosed value; the remainder includes holdings (e.g. unmapped tickers, options, or other security types) not yet covered by our sector mapping.
Source and citation information
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Recent moves
View source Form 13F filing on SEC.govSold out DUHP
Add GSLC
+3.9% $7.3M
Add DYNF
+5.1% $4.2M
Add NYF
+11.6% $2.4M
Add GSIE
+4.5% $2.3M
Add FVAL
+3.8% $2.6M
Holdings Map
New buyAddUnchangedTrim
Top 10 holdings by weight
Full holdings list this quarter
| # | Ticker | Issuer | Asset Subclass | Weight | Weight Change | Shares Change | 4Q Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSLC | Goldman Activebeta US Lc ETF | ETF-Commodities | 13.98% | +1.43% | +3.95% | |
| 2 | MTUM | Ishares Msci USA Momentum Fa | ETF-Other | 11.79% | -0.02% | +2.95% | |
| 3 | DYNF | Ishrs US E F R A Etf-usd Inc | ETF-Other | 7.19% | +0.78% | +5.06% | |
| 4 | NYF | Ishares New York Muni Bond E | ETF-Other | 6.04% | +0.53% | +11.57% | |
| 5 | GSIE | Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int | ETF-Commodities | 5.71% | +0.51% | +4.46% | |
| 6 | DIHP | Dimensional International Hi | ETF-Other | 5.17% | +0.40% | +4.75% | |
| 7 | SCHO | Schwab Short-term US Treas | ETF-Other | 4.92% | +0.38% | +4.59% | |
| 8 | USMV | Ishares Msci USA Min Vol Fac | ETF-Other | 4.77% | +0.47% | +4.70% | |
| 9 | SCHR | Schwab Intermediate-term US | ETF-Other | 4.55% | +0.40% | +8.84% | |
| 10 | FVAL | Fidelity Value Factor ETF | ETF-Other | 4.17% | +0.47% | +3.78% | |
| 11 | AVUV | Avantis US Small Cap Value | ETF-Small Cap | 4.04% | +0.10% | +3.53% | |
| 12 | SPIB | Ss Spdr P Int C CORP ETF | ETF-Other | 3.55% | +0.19% | +4.57% | |
| 13 | FQAL | Fidelity Quality Factor ETF | ETF-Other | 3.32% | +0.35% | +4.02% | |
| 14 | AVEM | Avantis Emerging Markets Eq | ETF-Emerging Markets | 3.17% | +0.18% | +3.83% | |
| 15 | SHYG | Ishares 0-5 Yr Hy CORP Bond | ETF-Corp Bonds | 2.76% | +0.18% | +5.03% | |
| 16 | IUSV | Ishares Core S&p U.s. Value | ETF-Other | 2.44% | +0.21% | +4.17% | |
| 17 | IVLU | Ishares Msci International V | ETF-Other | 1.88% | +0.18% | +2.69% | |
| 18 | FNDC | Schwab Fndmnt Intl Sm Eq ETF | ETF-Other | 1.78% | +0.19% | +4.09% | |
| 19 | GSSC | Goldman Sachs Activebeta US | ETF-Commodities | 1.67% | +0.02% | +2.81% | |
| 20 | SPTL | Ss Spdr Pf Lng Trm Tsy E-usd | ETF-Other | 1.30% | +0.03% | +7.20% | |
| 21 | SPY | Ss Spdr S&p 500 ETF Trust-us | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 1.09% | +0.07% | — | |
| 22 | SPYM | Ste Str Spdr Pt S&p 500 ETF | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 0.62% | +0.07% | +5.50% | |
| 23 | VTEB | Vanguard Tax-exempt Bond ETF | ETF-Other | 0.51% | -0.01% | +0.91% | |
| 24 | IWV | Ishares Russell 3000 ETF | ETF-Other | 0.25% | +0.01% | — | |
| 25 | IXUS | Ishares Core Intl Stock ETF | ETF-Other | 0.23% | +0.02% | +5.08% | |
| 26 | REZ | Ishars Res And Multi Reales | ETF-Other | 0.23% | — | +0.15% | |
| 27 | IVV | Ishares Core S&p 500 ETF | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 0.21% | +0.02% | — | |
| 28 | AAPL | Apple Inc | Stock-Tech | 0.18% | +0.03% | — | |
| 29 | IWD | Ishares Russell 1000 Value E | ETF-Other | 0.17% | +0.01% | — | |
| 30 | DFAC | Dimensional US Core Equity 2 | ETF-Other | 0.15% | +0.01% | — | |
| 31 | SPMD | Ss Spdr P S&p 400 Midcap ETF | ETF-Other | 0.14% | +0.01% | +6.39% | |
| 32 | ACWX | Ishares Msci Acwi Ex US ETF | ETF-Other | 0.13% | — | — | |
| 33 | MSFT | Microsoft CORP | Stock-Tech | 0.12% | +0.04% | +4.84% | |
| 34 | SCHB | Schwab US Broad Market ETF | ETF-Other | 0.12% | — | +0.54% | |
| 35 | IWM | Ishares Russell 2000 ETF | ETF-Small Cap | 0.10% | -0.01% | — | |
| 36 | BNL | Broadstone Net Lease Inc | Stock-Real Estate | 0.09% | -0.01% | -2.76% | |
| 37 | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc-cl A | Stock-Comm Services | 0.08% | — | — | |
| 38 | IJR | Ishares Core S&p Small-cap E | ETF-Small Cap | 0.08% | — | — | |
| 39 | VEA | Vanguard Ftse Developed ETF | ETF-Other | 0.07% | — | — | |
| 40 | OEF | Ishares S&p 100 ETF | ETF-Other | 0.07% | +0.01% | — | |
| 41 | TT | Trane Technologies plc | Stock-Industrials | 0.07% | — | — | |
| 42 | DFAT | Dimensional US Target Value | ETF-Other | 0.06% | — | — | |
| 43 | ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | Stock-Industrials | 0.06% | — | — | |
| 44 | ACWI | Ishares Msci Acwi ETF | ETF-Other | 0.06% | +0.01% | — | |
| 45 | GVI | Ishares Intermediate Governm | ETF-Other | 0.06% | +0.01% | — | |
| 46 | NVDA | Nvidia CORP | Stock-Tech | 0.05% | — | — | |
| 47 | MU | Micron Technology Inc | Stock-Tech | 0.05% | — | — | |
| 48 | IEI | Ishares 3-7 Year Treasury Bo | ETF-Gov Bonds | 0.05% | — | — | |
| 49 | SUSA | Ishares Esg Optimized Msci U | ETF-Other | 0.05% | +0.01% | +0.23% | |
| 50 | SPSM | Ss Spdr P S&p 600 Small Cap | ETF-Small Cap | 0.04% | — | +5.70% |
1–50 of 71
Portfolio Performance
Performance for Q4 2026
+0.3%
Performance Last 4 Quarters
+11.4%
- Stdev
- +9.7%
- Beta
- +0.74
- Alpha
- +0.6%
- Max Drawdown
- -4.7%
- Annualized Perf
- +17.9%
- Batting Avg vs S&P
- +38.9%
- Sortino
- +3.63
- Stutzer
- +0.51
- Treynor
- +0.23
- Sterling
- +1.28
- Calmar
- +3.77
- Information Ratio
- -1.09
- Tracking Error
- +4.8%
- Stdev Down
- +4.7%
- Winning Months %
- +77.8%
- Losing Months %
- +22.2%
- Best 12 Months
- +26.9%
- Worst 12 Months
- +6%
- Efficiency Ratio
- +0.7
- Sharpe
- +1.76
- Stdev Sectors
- +14.1%
- Skewness
- -0.14
- Kurtosis
- +0.07
- Upside Potential
- +5.05
Reported value over time
Sector allocation
Sector allocation over time
Quarterly history
| Period | Holdings | Total value | Stability | Top holdings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3 | 71 | $892.2M | 12 | ||
| 2026 Q2 | 75 | $935.0M | 18 | ||
| 2026 Q1 | 67 | $781.4M | 11 | ||
| 2025 Q4 | 73 | $749.9M | 5 | ||
| 2025 Q3 | 65 | $729.3M | 19 | ||
| 2025 Q2 | 60 | $668.7M | 0 | ||
| 2025 Q1 | 55 | $599.6M | 0 | ||
| 2024 Q4 | 55 | $557.8M | 0 | ||
| 2024 Q3 | 57 | $587.2M | 0 | ||
| 2024 Q2 | 54 | $551.5M | 0 | ||
| 2024 Q1 | 56 | $539.1M | 0 | ||
| 2023 Q4 | 54 | $495.6M | 0 | ||
| 2023 Q3 | 51 | $463.9M | 0 | ||
| 2023 Q2 | 47 | $466.0M | — | ||
| 2023 Q1 | 43 | $428.1M | — | ||
| 2022 Q4 | 44 | $365.3M | — | ||
| 2022 Q3 | 42 | $319.5M | — | ||
| 2022 Q2 | 44 | $315.8M | — | ||
| 2022 Q1 | 45 | $306.1M | — | ||
| 2021 Q4 | 41 | $269.3M | — | ||
| 2021 Q3 | 39 | $246.8M | — | ||
| 2021 Q2 | 39 | $236.6M | — | ||
| 2021 Q1 | 34 | $189.6M | — | ||
| 2020 Q4 | 33 | $163.4M | — |
Holding changes this quarter
High Probability Advisors, LLC's most significant position changes for 2026-09-30: Sold out: Dimensional US High Profi Et (DUHP); Sold out: Coherent CORP (COHR); New buy: Dell Technologies -c (DELL); Sold out: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO); New buy: Meta Platforms Inc-class A (META).
1–50 of 78
Filing History
FAQ
What is High Probability Advisors, LLC and what type of investor is it?
High Probability Advisors, LLC is an investment manager that files SEC Form 13F quarterly, disclosing its U.S. public equity holdings to regulators. As of the most recent reporting period (2026-09-30), the firm manages a tracked equity portfolio valued at approximately $892.2M, spread across 71 disclosed positions.
What are High Probability Advisors, LLC's largest equity positions?
Based on the latest 13F filing, High Probability Advisors, LLC's top holdings by market value are:
1. Goldman Activebeta US Lc ETF (GSLC) — $124.7M (14.0%)
2. Ishares Msci USA Momentum Fa (MTUM) — $105.2M (11.8%)
3. Ishrs US E F R A Etf-usd Inc (DYNF) — $64.1M (7.2%)
4. Ishares New York Muni Bond E (NYF) — $53.9M (6.0%)
5. Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int (GSIE) — $50.9M (5.7%)
What changes did High Probability Advisors, LLC make in its most recent portfolio filing?
In the latest reported quarter, High Probability Advisors, LLC made 44 notable position adjustments: 3 new positions were initiated, 30 existing holdings were added to, 4 positions were partially reduced, and 7 were completely exited. The largest of these moves: Sold out: Dimensional US High Profi Et (DUHP); Sold out: Coherent CORP (COHR); New buy: Dell Technologies -c (DELL); Sold out: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO); New buy: Meta Platforms Inc-class A (META)
What sectors does High Probability Advisors, LLC focus on?
High Probability Advisors, LLC is concentrated in the following sectors based on its current disclosed equity portfolio:
• Information Technology: 48.2%
• Industrials: 12.4%
• Communication Services: 10.4%
• Financials: 9.9%
• Real Estate: 9.2%
• Consumer Discretionary: 7.2%
* This report is exclusively curated by the AlphaSMO team. AlphaSMO is the web's most authoritative 13F / Inside Trader database, delivering precise insider trading and institutional holdings insights.
Investment Profile
High Probability Advisors, LLC returned an annualized 17.9% over the trailing 36 months — outperforming the S&P 500 by 0.6 points — based on a reconstructed track record of its disclosed 13F positions, with a beta of 0.74 (less volatile than the market) and a 39% quarterly batting average against the index.
Its portfolio is broadly diversified and long-term-holding, with 48.2% of the portfolio concentrated in Information Technology.
It has added to its GSLC position over the past two quarters (+$26.0M, now $124.7M), while trimming NIO over the same stretch (-$109.3K, still holding $113.9K).
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