CIK: 0001608604
Total reported value
$28.1M
Reporting period: 2021-12-31 · Number of holdings: 11
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC disclosed 11 holdings in its latest 13F filing for the period ending 2021-12-31, with total reported value of $28.1M and a quarterly turnover rate of 0.0%.
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Probabilities Fund Management, LLC's disclosed holdings carry a Herfindahl concentration index of 0.149 — mathematically equivalent to about 7 equally-sized positions, close to its 11 actual disclosed holdings. Value is spread relatively evenly across the portfolio rather than concentrated in a handful of names.
Position sizes are fairly uniform across the portfolio (a coefficient of variation of 0.84), suggesting a disciplined, rules-based approach to how much capital goes into each idea.
No strong tilt toward either adding to existing winners or initiating outsized new positions was observed in the latest reported quarter.
Sector classification currently covers about 8% of this portfolio's disclosed value; the remainder includes holdings (e.g. unmapped tickers, options, or other security types) not yet covered by our sector mapping.
No holding changes this quarter
| # | Ticker | Issuer | Asset Subclass | Weight | Weight Change | Shares Change | 4Q Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | ETF-Tech | 20.16% | — | -8.72% | |
| 2 | VOO | Vanguard S&p 500 ETF | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 19.88% | — | -9.67% | |
| 3 | DIA | Ss Spdr Dow Jones Indus Avg | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 19.35% | — | -9.44% | |
| 4 | UDOW | Proshares Ultrapro Dow30 | ETF-Other | 9.56% | — | -14.54% | |
| 5 | SPXL | Direxion Daily S&p 500 Bull | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 9.50% | — | -23.10% | |
| 6 | TQQQ | Proshares Ultrapro Qqq | ETF-Other | 9.34% | — | -25.87% | |
| 7 | MSFT | Microsoft CORP | Stock-Tech | 4.45% | — | — | |
| 8 | IIPR | Innovative Industrial Proper | Stock-Real Estate | 3.93% | — | -19.23% | |
| 9 | AMAT | Applied Materials INC | Stock-Tech | 1.49% | — | — | |
| 10 | STZ | Constellation Brands Inc-a | Stock-Consumer Staples | 1.45% | — | — | |
| 11 | AAPL | Apple INC | Stock-Tech | 0.89% | — | -20.45% |
Not enough priced holdings yet to compute performance
| Period | Holdings | Total value | Stability | Top holdings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 11 | $28.1M | 0 | |
| 2021-09-30 | 11 | $27.7M | 0 | |
| 2021-06-30 | 13 | $39.3M | 100 | |
| 2021-03-31 | 12 | $45.7M | 36 | |
| 2020-12-31 | 12 | $32.0M | 8 | |
| 2020-09-30 | 12 | $30.2M | 21 | |
| 2020-06-30 | 9 | $35.3M | 23 | |
| 2020-03-31 | 11 | $29.0M | 20 | |
| 2019-09-30 | 11 | $35.2M | 26 | |
| 2019-06-30 | 13 | $43.8M | 72 | |
| 2019-03-31 | 18 | $42.9M | 97 | |
| 2018-12-31 | 47 | $62.0M | 53 | |
| 2018-09-30 | 49 | $44.4M | 53 | |
| 2018-06-30 | 45 | $67.9M | 45 | |
| 2018-03-31 | 40 | $98.8M | 38 | |
| 2017-12-31 | 42 | $69.7M | 0 |
| # | Ticker | Issuer | Weight Change | Shares Change | Action |
|---|
| Period | Filed | Type | EDGAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 2022-02-11 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2021-09-30 | 2021-11-12 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2021-06-30 | 2021-08-10 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-05-11 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2020-12-31 | 2021-02-10 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-13 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2020-06-30 | 2020-08-11 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2020-03-31 | 2020-05-15 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2019-09-30 | 2019-11-12 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2019-06-30 | 2019-08-13 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2019-03-31 | 2019-05-15 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2018-12-31 | 2019-02-14 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018-11-14 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2018-06-30 | 2018-08-14 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2018-03-31 | 2018-05-15 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
| 2017-12-31 | 2018-02-16 | 13F-HR | View on EDGAR |
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