PF
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC Historical SEC 13F Holdings & Archive (Q4 2021)
Probabilities Fund Management, LLCCIK: 0001608604
Sector-focusedQuality / disciplined sizingLong-term holder
Total reported value
$28.1M
Reporting period: 2021-12-31 · Number of holdings: 11
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC disclosed 11 holdings in its latest 13F filing for the period ending 2021-12-31, with total reported value of $28.1M and a quarterly turnover rate of 0.0%.
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Personality snowflake
- Concentration
- 59.41
- Portfolio Stability
- 0
- Momentum
- 50
- Sector conviction
- 100
- Diversification
- 22
- Sizing Uniformity
- 91.65
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC's disclosed holdings carry a Herfindahl concentration index of 0.149 — mathematically equivalent to about 7 equally-sized positions, close to its 11 actual disclosed holdings. Value is spread relatively evenly across the portfolio rather than concentrated in a handful of names.
Position sizes are fairly uniform across the portfolio (a coefficient of variation of 0.84), suggesting a disciplined, rules-based approach to how much capital goes into each idea.
No strong tilt toward either adding to existing winners or initiating outsized new positions was observed in the latest reported quarter.
Sector classification currently covers about 8% of this portfolio's disclosed value; the remainder includes holdings (e.g. unmapped tickers, options, or other security types) not yet covered by our sector mapping.
Source and citation information
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Recent moves
View source Form 13F filing on SEC.govNo holding changes this quarter
Holdings Map
New buyAddUnchangedTrim
Top 10 holdings by weight
Full holdings list this quarter
| # | Ticker | Issuer | Asset Subclass | Weight | Weight Change | Shares Change | 4Q Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | ETF-Tech | 20.16% | — | -8.72% | |
| 2 | VOO | Vanguard S&p 500 ETF | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 19.88% | — | -9.67% | |
| 3 | DIA | Ss Spdr Dow Jones Indus Avg | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 19.35% | — | -9.44% | |
| 4 | UDOW | Proshares Ultrapro Dow30 | ETF-Other | 9.56% | — | -14.54% | |
| 5 | SPXL | Direxion Daily S&p 500 Bull | ETF-Large Cap & Growth | 9.50% | — | -23.10% | |
| 6 | TQQQ | Proshares Ultrapro Qqq | ETF-Other | 9.34% | — | -25.87% | |
| 7 | MSFT | Microsoft CORP | Stock-Tech | 4.45% | — | — | |
| 8 | IIPR | Innovative Industrial Proper | Stock-Real Estate | 3.93% | — | -19.23% | |
| 9 | AMAT | Applied Materials Inc | Stock-Tech | 1.49% | — | — | |
| 10 | STZ | Constellation Brands Inc-a | Stock-Consumer Staples | 1.45% | — | — | |
| 11 | AAPL | Apple Inc | Stock-Tech | 0.89% | — | -20.45% |
Reported value over time
Sector allocation
Sector allocation over time
Quarterly history
| Period | Holdings | Total value | Stability | Top holdings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Q4 | 11 | $28.1M | 0 | ||
| 2021 Q3 | 11 | $27.7M | 0 | ||
| 2021 Q2 | 13 | $39.3M | 100 | ||
| 2021 Q1 | 12 | $45.7M | 36 | ||
| 2020 Q4 | 12 | $32.0M | 8 | ||
| 2020 Q3 | 12 | $30.2M | 21 | ||
| 2020 Q2 | 9 | $35.3M | 23 | ||
| 2020 Q1 | 11 | $29.0M | 20 | ||
| 2019 Q3 | 11 | $35.2M | 26 | ||
| 2019 Q2 | 13 | $43.8M | 72 | ||
| 2019 Q1 | 18 | $42.9M | 97 | ||
| 2018 Q4 | 47 | $62.0M | 53 | ||
| 2018 Q3 | 49 | $44.4M | 53 | ||
| 2018 Q2 | 45 | $67.9M | 45 | ||
| 2018 Q1 | 40 | $98.8M | 38 | ||
| 2017 Q4 | 42 | $69.7M | 0 |
Holding changes this quarter
| # | Ticker | Issuer | Weight Change | Shares Change | Action |
|---|
Filing History
FAQ
What is Probabilities Fund Management, LLC and what type of investor is it?
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC is an investment manager that files SEC Form 13F quarterly, disclosing its U.S. public equity holdings to regulators. As of the most recent reporting period (2021-12-31), the firm manages a tracked equity portfolio valued at approximately $28.1M, spread across 11 disclosed positions.
What are Probabilities Fund Management, LLC's largest equity positions?
Based on the latest 13F filing, Probabilities Fund Management, LLC's top holdings by market value are:
1. Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 (QQQ) — $5.7M (20.2%)
2. Vanguard S&p 500 ETF (VOO) — $5.6M (19.9%)
3. Ss Spdr Dow Jones Indus Avg (DIA) — $5.4M (19.4%)
4. Proshares Ultrapro Dow30 (UDOW) — $2.7M (9.6%)
5. Direxion Daily S&p 500 Bull (SPXL) — $2.7M (9.5%)
What changes did Probabilities Fund Management, LLC make in its most recent portfolio filing?
No notable portfolio changes were recorded for Probabilities Fund Management, LLC in the most recent quarter. Holdings appear to have remained relatively stable.
What sectors does Probabilities Fund Management, LLC focus on?
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC is concentrated in the following sectors based on its current disclosed equity portfolio:
• Information Technology: 82.5%
• Consumer Staples: 17.5%
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Data Source Notice: AlphaSMO is the web's most authoritative 13F / Inside Trader database. Institutional holdings and insider trades presented here are precisely computed to deliver accurate portfolio reporting.
Investment Profile
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC's portfolio is moderately concentrated and long-term-holding, with 82.5% of the portfolio concentrated in Information Technology.
It has added to its MSFT position over the past two quarters (+$243.0K, now $1.3M), while trimming TQQQ over the same stretch (-$2.9M, still holding $2.6M).
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Developer Access
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